@Article{KlingamanYCGGWCKH:2021:SuPrPe,
               author = "Klingaman, Nicholas P. and Young, Matthew and Chevuturi, Amulya 
                         and Guimar{\~a}es, Bruno dos Santos and Guo, Liang and 
                         Woolnought, Steven J. and Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos and 
                         Kubota, Paulo Yoshio and Holloway, Christopher E.",
          affiliation = "{University of Reading} and {University of Reading} and 
                         {University of Reading} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {University of Reading} and {University of 
                         Reading} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} 
                         and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and 
                         {University of Reading}",
                title = "Subseasonal prediction performance for austral summer South 
                         American rainfall",
              journal = "Weather and Forecasting",
                 year = "2021",
               volume = "36",
               number = "1",
                pages = "147--169",
             keywords = "South America, ENSO, Madden-Julian oscillation, Rainfall, Forecast 
                         verification/skill, Intraseasonal variability.",
             abstract = "Skillful and reliable predictions of week-to-week rainfall 
                         variations in South America, two to three weeks ahead, are 
                         essential to protect lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems. We 
                         evaluate forecast performance for weekly rainfall in extended 
                         austral summer (NovemberMarch) in four contemporary subseasonal 
                         systems, including a new Brazilian model, at 15-week leads for 
                         19992010. We measure performance by the correlation coefficient 
                         (in time) between predicted and observed rainfall; we measure 
                         skill by the Brier skill score for rainfall terciles against a 
                         climatological reference forecast. We assess unconditional 
                         performance (i.e., regardless of initial condition) and 
                         conditional performance based on the initial phase of the 
                         MaddenJulian oscillation (MJO) and El NiņoSouthern Oscillation 
                         (ENSO). All models display substantial mean rainfall biases, 
                         including dry biases in Amazonia and wet biases near the Andes, 
                         which are established by week 1 and vary little thereafter. 
                         Unconditional performance extends to week 2 in all regions except 
                         for Amazonia and the Andes, but to week 3 only over northern, 
                         northeastern, and southeastern South America. Skill for upper-and 
                         lower-tercile rainfall extends only to week 1. Conditional 
                         performance is not systematically or significantly higher than 
                         unconditional perfor-mance; ENSO and MJO events provide limited 
                         windows of opportunity for improved S2S predictions that are 
                         region and model dependent. Conditional performance may be 
                         degraded by errors in predicted ENSO and MJO teleconnections to 
                         regional rainfall, even at short lead times.",
                  doi = "10.1175/WAF-D-19-0203.1",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0203.1",
                 issn = "0882-8156",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "klingaman_subseasonal.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "09 maio 2024"
}